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  Two Russians walk into a liquor store

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Author Topic:   Two Russians walk into a liquor store
Buster
Member
posted 02-07-2008 09:50 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Buster   Click Here to Email Buster     Edit/Delete Message
Its not a joke!

Female is working at a liquour store and two people come in and purchase two .99 liquor bottles.

They start telling the cashier that USA's money is so different and grab money out of the register and show the cashier the money "It so different, It so different".

They then leave after purchasing the bottles. The cashier( I have to double check this) never reports the suspicious activity.

Survelliance tape shows that there was a female on the right and a male on the left. There is no sound and no proof they are really "Russians." There was noone else in line. The female (19 years old) cashier looks around as the suspect is grabbing the money. But never slaps her hand and tells her to stop. The total missing is like 400.00.

You can see the female on the right grab a stack of 20's out of the register and put it in her left jacket pocket, then do the same thing again.

I saw the tape and know how scams can make poeple look stupid, I am leaning to-- she was just scammed. The detective says "Noone puts their hand in your register" and thinks there was no Russians and this may have been a couple of friends and a plan.

Det/Sgt wants her polygraphed.

It must be cash register girl week, I had a no call/no show yesterday for a counterfit money scam that they thought the register girl was involved in.

Ok after all of that the (R)questions are tricky to me here, let me give it a shot:

DYKFS the identity of those subjects that took the money out of the register?

Did you have prior knowledge that money would have been taken out of the register on that date?

These seem a little long and convoluted...

[This message has been edited by Buster (edited 02-07-2008).]

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stat
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posted 02-07-2008 10:48 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for stat   Click Here to Email stat     Edit/Delete Message
Buster, I kinda like those questions. Sounds like fun. I'll be doing a load of whites while you're chasing bad guys. humph!

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rnelson
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posted 02-07-2008 01:13 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for rnelson   Click Here to Email rnelson     Edit/Delete Message
quote:

DYKFS the identity of those subjects that took the money out of the register?

Did you have prior knowledge that money would have been taken out of the register on that date?


I'd begin with a clear understanding of how you want to score the test, not just the test questions.

I also favor a single issue diagnostic test whenever possible in these cases, as these exams offer the best balance of sensitivity to deception and specificity to truthfulness - as long as you use Senter (two-stage) rules. It is my understanding that all variants of the Zone Comparison Test were initially intended to be single issue exams. Their application to mixed issues and multi-facet exam situations in field practice requires a departure from the scoring procedures for the single issue zone exams. Such departures from standard Zone procedures essentially regard the Zone technique according to MGQT principles. Existing studies (just read the journal for the cites) seem to suggest that if you use traditional Zone rules with the spot scoring rule, then you probably have a test with good sensitivity, but weak specificity. Senter rules are much better.

It is my understanding that all variants of the MGQT technique, and the GQT from which those were originally derived were initially intended to be mixed issue or multi-facet exams, though MGQT variants are often effectively used in single issue testing situations. The published studies seem to indicate the MGQT may offer good sensitivity to deception, though with rather punishing and disappointing specificity to truthfulness. Some data would suggest the MGQT can provide a more effective balance of sensitivity and specificity simply by using Senter Rules instead of MGQT/spot rules.

Multi-facet exams are always tempting from an investigative perspective, because we want to attach a laundry-list of various issues of concern (like getting free floor-mats when you buy a used car). Unfortunately there is still a lot we don't know about sensitivity and specificity with multi-facet exams. We think that attacking a known event or known allegation from various semantic angles will improve sensitivity. However, we haven't really shown that to be reliable. Theory tells us the test should become more sensitive, with some corresponding increase in FPs (=decrease in specificity to truthfulness). Polygraph, as a profession and science, has to grown beyond test design supported by mere theory (read: untested hypothesis). One thing we are concerned about is that screening exams such as LEPET, PCSOT, and security (which are mixed issue, not multi-facet), may not be as sensitive as we might be inclined to assume.

The difference between a mixed issue exam and multi-facet exam is simple: multi-facet exams require a known incident or known allegation. By definition: mixed issues exams are those for which it is conceivable that a test subject could lie to one or more questions while being truthful to other questions. With that in mind, in multi-facet examinations of known incident/allegation, it is inconceivable that a test subject could lie to one or more test questions while being truthful regarding his or her involvement in the issue/allegation.

Mixed issues exams are of unknown incident and without known allegations. They are therefore screening exams, for which we want to optimize sensitivity, with the goal of not overlooking any potential problem. Because they are screening exam, and because adverse action should not directly follow the results of screening exams, we are prepared in advance to tolerate some overprediction of problems (because it improves sensitivity). Errors will be remedied upon further investigation, and the narrowing of unresolved issues can contribute to an effective process of isolating and diagnosing problems.

The single issue exam is free (free-er) of the unquantified complications associated with multi-facet and mixed issues exam, and provides a more robust mathematical framework within which to resolve known incidents or known allegations.

So, what makes a single issue exam? Answer: when it is inconceivable that a subject could lie to one question while being truthful to another. That's enough for me.

So, it could be argued that your questions (repeated below) represent a single issue exam.

quote:

DYKFS the identity of those subjects that took the money out of the register?

Did you have prior knowledge that money would have been taken out of the register on that date?


The only problem I have with these questions is the chunkiness of the language and use of semi-legalistic jargon (“identity” “prior knowledge”). Only polygraph examiners and police investigators talk like that.

Good (great) questions are any version of “did you do it.”

So, perhaps:

Multi-facet (MGQT)

  • Did you plan with those people to have that money taken from the register on (date)?
  • Did you ever talk to those people before they took the money from the register on (date)?
  • Do you know the people who took the money from your cash register on (date)?

or Zone

  • Did you plan with those people to take any money from your cash register?
  • Did you plan with those people to have that money taken from the regiter on (date)?
  • DYKFS those people had planned to take that money from your cash register?

Its still not great.

.02


r

Photobucket

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"Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room."
--(Stanley Kubrick/Peter Sellers - Dr. Strangelove, 1964)


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stat
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posted 02-07-2008 01:28 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for stat   Click Here to Email stat     Edit/Delete Message
Simplifying might be a good thing.

Did you steal that money in any way?

Did you plan the theft of that money in any way?

Photobucket

[This message has been edited by stat (edited 02-07-2008).]

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Buster
Member
posted 02-07-2008 04:17 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Buster   Click Here to Email Buster     Edit/Delete Message
I don't know how I ever forgot the Dy Plan? question. Thats textbook.

I don't think it s happening, two guys went to get her at work not mentioning the polygraph and she wouldn't come down.

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Taylor
Member
posted 02-07-2008 04:33 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Taylor   Click Here to Email Taylor     Edit/Delete Message
I don't really like did you ever 'talk' to those people before they took the money. 'Plan' is much better...I always stick with the dy, dy huh, and the last would be 'dy receive any of the stolen $' or 'dy profit in anyway from the stolen $'

Keep us posted.

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sackett
Moderator
posted 02-08-2008 12:11 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for sackett   Click Here to Email sackett     Edit/Delete Message
Buster,

how 'bout:

Did you steal

Did you agree with anyone to steal

Do you know where any of that stolen money is now

Or some variation,

Jim

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